Jasper Journal

The following article is from Paul, responding to recent developments in the Persian Gulf. Thanks Paul,  and a pleasant weekend to all! See you Monday.

“Last Wednesday, Iran stated that it considered the aircraft carrier USS Stennis, which had just departed the Persian Gulf, to be a threat.  It further warned the ship not to return to the Gulf.  The Iranian statements come after a show of military force in the Gulf, to include surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile firings.  All this activity is to demonstrate that for Iran, closing the Strait of Hormuz would be as easy as “Drinking a glass of water.”

It is not clear if the Iranian threats are mere bluster and rhetoric, or if Tehran really believes that it has the ability to close the Strait.  To be sure, Iran could impose a temporary disruption of maritime traffic, with a concomitant surge in insurance rates and oil prices.  Should it do so, there is no doubt that the United States would order its forces to reopen the Strait.  This is a case where NATO would probably be willing to commit forces to fight alongside us, given European reliance on Persian Gulf oil.  Should Iran engage US/NATO forces, the result would be an unmitigated disaster for Iranian forces.

There are some missions at which the US military does not excel, for a variety of reasons (equipment, rules of engagement, cultural training, expertise, collateral damage issues, etc).   For example, the Armed Forces struggle with nation building, peacekeeping, and many types of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations.  The mission in which the US military does excel is conventional, high-technology warfare.  This is exactly the warfare domain in which the Iranians would engage us and for once we hold the trump cards.

In 1988, Tehran made the mistake of attacking US Navy assets, which were shelling Iranian oil platforms in the southern Persian Gulf.  The US action was in response to Iranian mining of the Gulf, which had damaged the destroyer USS Samuel B. Roberts.  The Iranian Navy sortied to do battle with the US Navy; when the smoke had cleared, three Iranian fast gunboats, one speedboat, and one frigate had been sunk.  Another Iranian frigate, the Sabalan, was hit by a US 500-pound bomb, and was spared from sinking only when the US called off further attacks on the ship as a de-escalation symbol.  Not a single US asset received any battle damage.

While Iranian military capabilities have certainly improved since 1988, those of the US Navy have improved even more.  If Tehran attempts to engage US forces in the Persian Gulf, it will be an unusual case of a nation selecting an asymmetric strategy which plays to an adversary’s strengths and its own weaknesses — in short, suicide.  The Iranian Navy and Air Force will die trying to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and they will die in vain, just as they did in 1988.”